improves the performance of discrete choice models in forecasting systemic events. Our framework shows a good out …

’s forecasting performance relative to a number of benchmarks, including a Bayesian VAR. We finally consider several applications to … illustrate the potential contributions the NAWM can make to forecasting and policy analysis. …

In this paper we review the methodology of forecasting with log-linearised DSGE models using Bayesian methods. We focus … matrix of h-step ahead forecasts. In the empirical analysis, we examine the forecasting performance of the New Area … scope for improving the NAWM’s forecasting performance. For example, the model is not able to explain the moderation in wage …

distribution. As an empirical illustration, we use euro area data and compare the forecasting performance of the New Area …

and standard empirical benchmarks. The design is aligned to its role as workhorse model in the context of the forecasting …