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In this paper, we study the dynamics and drivers of sovereign bond yields in euro area countries using a factor model with time-varying loading coeffi cients and stochastic volatility, which allows for capturing changes in the pricing mechanism of bond yields. Our key contribution is exploring...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012963728
’s forecasting performance relative to a number of benchmarks, including a Bayesian VAR. We finally consider several applications to … illustrate the potential contributions the NAWM can make to forecasting and policy analysis. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604990
In this paper we review the methodology of forecasting with log-linearised DSGE models using Bayesian methods. We focus … matrix of h-step ahead forecasts. In the empirical analysis, we examine the forecasting performance of the New Area … scope for improving the NAWM’s forecasting performance. For example, the model is not able to explain the moderation in wage …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605231