This paper aims to illustrate how weight matrices that are needed to construct foreign variable vectors in Global Vector Autoregressive (GVAR) models can be estimated jointly with the GVAR's parameters. An application to real GDP and consumption expenditure price inflation as well as a...

The purpose of the paper is to develop a Regime-Switching Global Vector Autoregressive (RS-GVAR) model. The RS-GVAR model allows for recurring or non-recurring structural changes in all or a subset of countries. It can be used to generate regime-dependent impulse response functions which are...

This paper aims to illustrate how weight matrices that are needed to construct foreign variable vectors in Global Vector Autoregressive (GVAR) models can be estimated jointly with the GVAR's parameters. An application to real GDP and consumption expenditure price inflation as well as a...

The purpose of the paper is to develop a Regime-Switching Global Vector Autoregressive (RS-GVAR) model. The RS-GVAR model allows for recurring or non-recurring structural changes in all or a subset of countries. It can be used to generate regime-dependent impulse response functions which are...

This paper introduces a new indicator of contemporaneous stress in the financial system named Composite Indicator of Systemic Stress (CISS). Its specific statistical design is shaped according to standard definitions of systemic risk. The main methodological innovation of the CISS is the...

This paper studies how the drivers of portfolio flows change across periods with a model where regression coefficients endogenously change over time in a continuous fashion. The empirical analysis of daily equity portfolio flows to emerging markets shows that the regression coefficients display...

We develop an integrated Early Warning Global Vector Autoregressive (EW-GVAR) model to quantify the costs and benefits of capital-based macroprudential policy measures. Our findings illustrate that capital-based measures are transmitted both via their impact on the banking system's resilience...