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policymaker's preferences, and the forecasting horizons …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013120562
The paper develops an early-warning model for predicting vulnerabilities leading to distress in European banks using both bank and country-level data. As outright bank failures have been rare in Europe, the paper introduces a novel dataset that complements bankruptcies and defaults with state...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013074637
Early-warning models most commonly optimize signaling thresholds on crisis probabilities. The expost threshold optimization is based upon a loss function accounting for preferences between forecast errors, but comes with two crucial drawbacks: unstable thresholds in recursive estimations and an...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012962344
In this paper we present a methodology of model-based calibration of additional capital needed in an interconnected financial system to minimize potential contagion losses. Building on ideas from combinatorial optimization tailored to controlling contagion in case of complete information about...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013226863