Showing 1 - 10 of 10
This paper uses a small, calibrated forward-looking model of the euro-area economy to investigate the implications of incomplete information about potential output for the conduct and the design of monetary policy. Three sets of issues are examined. First, the certainty-equivalent optimal policy...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604105
improves the performance of discrete choice models in forecasting systemic events. Our framework shows a good out …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605357
This paper introduces a new indicator of contemporaneous stress in the financial system named Composite Indicator of Systemic Stress (CISS). Its specific statistical design is shaped according to standard definitions of systemic risk. The main methodological innovation of the CISS is the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605471
This paper studies how the drivers of portfolio flows change across periods with a model where regression coefficients endogenously change over time in a continuous fashion. The empirical analysis of daily equity portfolio flows to emerging markets shows that the regression coefficients display...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605513
The empirical literature on systemic banking crises (SBCs) has shown that SBCs are rare events that break out in the midst of credit intensive booms and bring about particularly deep and long-lasting recessions. We attempt to explain these phenomena within a dynamic general equilibrium model...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605559
In this paper, we study the dynamics and drivers of sovereign bond yields in euro area countries using a factor model with time-varying loading coefficients and stochastic volatility, which allows for capturing changes in the pricing mechanism of bond yields. Our key contribution is exploring...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011606057
We analyse the effects of supranational versus national banking supervision on credit supply, and its interactions with monetary policy. For identification, we exploit: (i) a new, proprietary dataset based on 15 European credit registers; (ii) the institutional change leading to the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012389552
While regulatory capital buffers are expected to be drawn to absorb losses and meet credit demand during crises, this paper shows that banks were unwilling to do so during the pandemic. To the contrary, banks engaged in forms of pro-cyclical behaviour to preserve capital ratios. By employing...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013272135
On 1 June 2018 the ECB celebrated its 20th anniversary. This paper provides a comprehensive view of the ECB's monetary policy over these two decades. The first section provides a chronological account of the macroeconomic and monetary policy developments in the euro area since the adoption of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012142063
equilibrium models, estimated using Bayesian techniques, can become an additional useful tool in the forecasting kit of central … banks. First, we show that the forecasting performance of such models compares well with a-theoretical vector …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604435