Showing 1 - 8 of 8
. Nevertheless, their forecasting properties are still barely explored. We fill this gap by comparing the quality of real … priors from a DSGE model. We show that the analyzed DSGE model is relatively successful in forecasting the US economy in the … accurate short-term forecasts for interest rates. Conditional on experts' now casts, however, the forecasting power of the DSGE …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605156
This paper presents a quarterly global model linking individual country vector errorcorrecting models in which the domestic variables are related to the country-specific foreign variables. The global VAR (GVAR) model is estimated for 26 countries, the euro area being treated as a single economy,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604614
New Keynesian Phillips Curves (NKPC) have been exten-sively used in the analysis of monetary policy, but yet there are a number of issues of concern about how they are estimated and then related to the underlying macro-economic theory. The first is whether such equations are identified. To check...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604938
to the cross-sectional dimension, the forecasting performance of small monetary VARs can be improved by adding additional …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605012
The aim of this paper is to assess whether explicitly modeling structural change increases the accuracy of macroeconomic forecasts. We produce real time out-of-sample forecasts for inflation, the unemployment rate and the interest rate using a Time-Varying Coefficients VAR with Stochastic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605213
In this paper we review the methodology of forecasting with log-linearised DSGE models using Bayesian methods. We focus … matrix of h-step ahead forecasts. In the empirical analysis, we examine the forecasting performance of the New Area … scope for improving the NAWM’s forecasting performance. For example, the model is not able to explain the moderation in wage …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605231
This paper presents a parsimonious model for forecasting and analysing euro area house prices and their interrelations …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605295
short-term interest rate, stock returns or corporate bond spreads. The forecasting performance is very good for the United …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605301