Boom-bust cycles in real estate markets have been major factors in systemic financial crises and therefore need to be at the forefront of macroprudential policy. The geographically differentiated nature of real estate market fluctuations implies that these policies need to be granular across...

The financial crisis has been characterised by fragmentation in the transmission of monetary policy, reflected in high dispersion in the cost of bank finance for euro area firms. Using micro-level bank data across a number of euro area countries, we identify individual bank balance sheet...

Why did the shadow banking sectors in the US and the euro area expand in the decade before the financial crisis and what are the implications for systemic risk and macro-prudential policy? This paper examines these issues with a model of the financial sector where the size of the shadow banking...

The main result in Svensson (2017) and its previous versions is that, given current knowledge and empirical estimates, the cost of using monetary policy to "lean against the wind" for financialstability purposes exceeds the benefit by a substantial margin. Adrian and Liang (2016a) conduct a...

We offer a theory of financial c ontagion b ased o n t he i nformation c hoice o f i nvestors after observing a financial crisis e lsewhere. We study global coordination games of regime change in two regions linked by an initially unobserved macro shock. A crisis in region 1 is a wake-up call to...

This paper proposes a semi-structural approach to identifying excessive household credit developments. Using an overlapping generations model, a normative trend level for the real household credit stock is derived that depends on four fundamental economic factors: real potential GDP, the...

This paper explores monetary-macroprudential policy interactions in a simple, calibrated New Keynesian model incorporating the possibility of a credit boom precipitating a financial crisis and a loss function reflecting financial stability considerations. Deploying the countercyclical capital...

A financial stress index for the United States is introduced – an index that was used in real time by the staff of the Federal Reserve Board to monitor the financial crisis of 2008-9 – and the interaction with real activity, inflation and monetary policy is demonstrated using a richly...

In this study, we approximate the financial cycle in Europe by combining potential common and relevant financial indicators. We consider different credit aggregates and asset prices but also incorporate banking sector indicators for 11 European countries. We develop seven different synthetic...