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Short-term forecasts of euro area real GDP growth: an assessment of real-time performance based on vintage data

Diron, Marie - 2006

Economic policy makers, international organisations and private-sector forecasters commonly use short-term forecasts of real GDP growth based on monthly indicators, such as industrial production, retail sales and confidence surveys. An assessment of the reliability of such tools and of the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604668

Short-Term Forecasts of Euro Area Real GDP Growth : An Assessment of Real-Time Performance Based on Vintage Data

Diron, Marie - 2021

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013317625

Putting the New Keynesian DSGE model to the real-time forecasting test

Kolasa, Marcin; Rubaszek, Michał; Skrzypczyński, Paweł - 2009

. Nevertheless, their forecasting properties are still barely explored. We fill this gap by comparing the quality of real … priors from a DSGE model. We show that the analyzed DSGE model is relatively successful in forecasting the US economy in the … accurate short-term forecasts for interest rates. Conditional on experts' now casts, however, the forecasting power of the DSGE …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605156

Euro area labour markets: different reaction to shocks?

Brůha, Jan; Pierluigi, Beatrice; Serafini, Roberta - 2011

A small labour market model for the six largest euro area countries (Germany, France, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands, Belgium) is estimated in a state -space framework. The model entails, in the long run, four driving forces: a trend labour force component, a trend labour productivity component,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605330

Understanding and forecasting aggregate and disaggregate price dynamics

Bermingham, Colin; D’Agostino, Antonello - 2011

The issue of forecast aggregation is to determine whether it is better to forecast a series directly or instead construct forecasts of its components and then sum these component forecasts. Notwithstanding some underlying theoretical results, it is generally accepted that forecast aggregation is...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605411

Does Uncertainty Affect Participation in the European Central Bank's Survey of Professional Forecasters?

López-Pérez, Víctor - 2015

This paper explores how changes in macroeconomic uncertainty have affected the decision to participate in the European Central Bank's Survey of Professional Forecasters. Two different approaches are employed in order to address this question. First, a time-series analysis explores if changes in...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013020645

Flow of conjunctural information and forecast of euro area economic activity

Drechsel, Katja; Maurin, Laurent - 2008

Euro area GDP and components are nowcast and forecast one quarter ahead. Based on a dataset of 163 series comprising the relevant monthly indicators, simple bridge equations with one explanatory variable are estimated for each. The individual forecasts generated by each equation are then pooled,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604971

Estimating the Euro Area Output Gap Using Multivariate Information and Addressing the COVID-19 Pandemic

Morley, James; Palenzuela, Diego Rodriguez; Sun, Yiqiao; … - 2022

We estimate the euro area output gap by applying the Beveridge-Nelson decomposition based on a large Bayesian vector autoregression. Our approach incorporates multivariate information through the inclusion of a wide range of variables in the analysis and addresses data issues associated with the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014078099

Flow on Conjunctural Information and Forecast of Euro Area Economic Activity

Drechsel, Katja; Maurin, Laurent - 2021

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013316489

Does the yield spread predict recessions in the euro area?

Moneta, Fabio - 2003

-month interest rates is explored in an exercise of out-of-sample forecasting. This yield spread appears to contain …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604340

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