The number of variables related to long-run economic growth is large compared with the number of countries. Bayesian model averaging is often used to impose parsimony in the cross-country growth regression. The underlying prior is that many of the considered variables need to be excluded from...

The fact that increasing importance is being attached to foreign trade under the new Chinese leadership must not be mistaken for automatic expansion of the importation of foreign goods. Foreign trade will, as before, have only a complementary function in the economic development of China. For...

"In this paper we seek to produce forecasts of commodity price movements that can systematically improve on naive statistical benchmarks, and revisit the forecasting performance of changes in commodity currencies as efficient predictors of commodity prices, a view emphasized in the recent...