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Short-Term Forecasts of Euro Area Real GDP Growth : An Assessment of Real-Time Performance Based on Vintage Data
Diron, Marie - 2021
Economic policy makers, international organisations and private-sector forecasters commonly use short-term forecasts of real GDP growth based on monthly indicators, such as industrial production, retail sales and confidence surveys. An assessment of the reliability of such tools and of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013317625
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Monetary policy communication: Evidence from Survey Data
Popovska-Kamnar, Neda - 2017
This paper summarizes the results of a Survey on Monetary policy Communication conducted among central banks in Central Eastern and South-Eastern Europe and the euro area. The main objective of this Survey was to draw evidence on the level of transparency and communication strategies of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011785370
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Is a global recession imminent?
Guénette, Justin Damien; Kose, M. Ayhan; Sugawara, Naotaka - 2022
Global growth prospects have deteriorated significantly since the beginning of the year, raising the specter of global recession. This paper relies on insights gleaned from previous global recessions to analyze the recent evolution of economic activity and policies and presents plausible...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014541046
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Putting the New Keynesian DSGE model to the real-time forecasting test
Kolasa, Marcin; Rubaszek, Michał; Skrzypczyński, Paweł - 2009
. Nevertheless, their forecasting properties are still barely explored. We fill this gap by comparing the quality of real … priors from a DSGE model. We show that the analyzed DSGE model is relatively successful in forecasting the US economy in the … accurate short-term forecasts for interest rates. Conditional on experts' now casts, however, the forecasting power of the DSGE …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605156
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How robust is the result that the cost of "leaning against the wind" exceeds the benefit? Response to Adrian and Liang
Svensson, Lars E.O. - 2017
The main result in Svensson (2017) and its previous versions is that, given current knowledge and empirical estimates, the cost of using monetary policy to "lean against the wind" for financialstability purposes exceeds the benefit by a substantial margin. Adrian and Liang (2016a) conduct a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011667207
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Targeting financial stability: Macroprudential or monetary policy?
Aikman, David; Giese, Julia; Kapadia, Sujit; McLeay, Michael - 2019
This paper explores monetary-macroprudential policy interactions in a simple, calibrated New Keynesian model incorporating the possibility of a credit boom precipitating a financial crisis and a loss function reflecting financial stability considerations. Deploying the countercyclical capital...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012142122
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Flow of conjunctural information and forecast of euro area economic activity
Drechsel, Katja; Maurin, Laurent - 2008
Euro area GDP and components are nowcast and forecast one quarter ahead. Based on a dataset of 163 series comprising the relevant monthly indicators, simple bridge equations with one explanatory variable are estimated for each. The individual forecasts generated by each equation are then pooled,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604971
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Understanding and Forecasting Aggregate and Disaggregate Price Dynamics
Bermingham, Colin - 2011
The issue of forecast aggregation is to determine whether it is better to forecast a series directly or instead construct forecasts of its components and then sum these component forecasts. Notwithstanding some underlying theoretical results, it is generally accepted that forecast aggregation is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013122152
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Putting the New Keynesian DSGE Model to the Real-Time Forecasting Test
Kolasa, Marcin - 2009
. Nevertheless, their forecasting properties are still barely explored. We fill this gap by comparing the quality of real … priors from a DSGE model. We show that the analyzed DSGE model is relatively successful in forecasting the US economy in the … accurate short-term forecasts for interest rates. Conditional on experts' now casts, however, the forecasting power of the DSGE …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013155104
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Forecasting and Stress Testing with Quantile Vector Autoregression
Chavleishvili, Sulkhan - 2019
We introduce a structural quantile vector autoregressive (VAR) model. Unlike standard VAR which models only the average interaction of the endogenous variables, quantile VAR models their interaction at any quantile. We show how to estimate and forecast multivariate quantiles within a recursive...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012859199