This study develops a new monthly euro Area‐wide Leading Indicator (ALI) for the euro area business cycle. It derives … ahead and satisfactory predictors by up to 2 years ahead. A real‐time analysis for predicting the euro business cycle during …

In this paper we look at business cycles similarities between CEE countries and the euro area. Particularly, we uncover …-in (GDP-to-inflation) and cross-country (CEECs vs. euro area) levels. Allowing for different degrees of cyclical similarity … Latvia and the euro area being at the boundary). Looking at cross-country results, almost all countries feature a fair degree …

countries in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) and the euro area. We start off by demonstrating that the degree of … synchronization of the business cycles of CEE countries and their main trade partners from the euro area has increased in recent years …

Euro-area accession caused boom-bust cycles in several catching-up economies. Declining interest rates and easier …

economic activity in the euro area. In- and out-of-sample predictive content of corporate bond spreads are examined along three …

We seek to quantify the impact on euro area GDP of the European Economic Recovery Plan (EERP) enacted in response to … findings. We then show that the EERP, if implemented as initially enacted, had a sizeable, although short-lived impact on euro …

How much did fiscal policy contribute to euro area real GDP growth during the Great Recession? We estimate that …

underlying the capacity constraint theory (Macklem (1997)). The theoretical model motivates our empirical assessment for the euro …