This study develops a new monthly euro Area‐wide Leading Indicator (ALI) for the euro area business cycle. It derives … ahead and satisfactory predictors by up to 2 years ahead. A real‐time analysis for predicting the euro business cycle during …

This paper presents a parsimonious model for forecasting and analysing euro area house prices and their interrelations … central to the determination of euro area house prices in equilibrium and their dynamics: housing investment, real disposable … examining out-of-sample one- and two- step ahead forecasts. Moreover, the model suggests that euro area housing was overvalued …

The paper focuses on the estimation of the euro area output gap. We construct model-averaged measures of the output gap … models of GDP. We first estimate nine models of trend-cycle decomposition of euro area GDP, both univariate and multivariate … predictive power of the output gap for inflation in the euro area. We find evidence of changes in trend growth around the …

in the euro area. Overall, we find strong variation in the information content of these variables over time. We show that …

different surveys in parallel. Focusing on the euro area and using two well-known surveys that include questions on inflation …

In this paper, we outline a version of the New Area-Wide Model (NAWM) of the euro area designed for use in the (Broad …

breaks in the performance of most simple Phillips curves. Euro area inflation was particularly hard to forecast in the run … extraordinarily long period by euro area standards. We complement the analysis using real-time data over 2005-2018. As lessons for …