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Explaining government revenue windfalls and shortfalls: an analysis for selected EU countries

Morris, Richard; de Castro Fernández, Francisco; Jonk, … - 2009

issue by estimating “unexplained” changes in tax and social contribution revenues, based on proxies for tax revenue bases … same exercise using alternative tax base proxies, either taken from forecasting models or on the basis of our knowledge of … the tax system in each country. The results show that, in the aggregate, revenue windfalls and shortfalls have exhibited a …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605160

Fiscal forecasting: lessons from the literature and challenges

Leal, Teresa; Pérez, Javier J.; Tujula, Mika; Vidal, … - 2007

While fiscal forecasting and monitoring has its roots in the accountability of governments for the use of public funds in democracies, the Stability and Growth Pact has significantly increased interest in budgetary forecasts in Europe, where they play a key role in the EU multilateral budgetary...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604889

Inflation forecasting in the new EU Member States

Arratibel, Olga; Kamps, Christophe; Leiner-Killinger, Nadine - 2009

To the best of our knowledge, our paper is the first systematic study of the predictive power of monetary aggregates for future inflation for the cross section of New EU Member States. This paper provides stylized facts on monetary versus non-monetary (economic and fiscal) determinants of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605061

The gains from early intervention in Europe: Fiscal surveillance and fiscal planning using cash data

Hughes Hallett, Andrew; Kuhn, Moritz; Warmedinger, Thomas - 2010

This paper does two things. First it examines the use of real time inter-annual cash data and the role of early interventions for improving the monitoring of national fiscal policies and the correction of fiscal indiscipline. Early warnings are important because they allow us to spread the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605266

Identifying the effects of government spending shocks with and without expected reversal: an approach based on U.S. real-time data

Cimadomo, Jacopo; Hauptmeier, Sebastian; Sola, Sergio - 2011

This paper investigates how expectations about future government spending affect the transmission of fiscal policy shocks. We study the effects of two different types of government spending shocks in the United States: (i) spending shocks that are accompanied by an expected reversal of public...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605407

Modelling and Simulation: An Overview

McAleer, Michael; Chan, Felix; Oxley, Les - 2013

The papers in this special issue of Mathematics and Computers in Simulation cover the following topics: improving …, globalization, and innovation: a general equilibrium simulation, whether exchange rates affect consumer prices: a comparative …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010326266

Forecast evaluation of small nested model sets

Hubrich, Kirstin; West, Kenneth D. - 2009

We propose two new procedures for comparing the mean squared prediction error (MSPE) of a benchmark model to the MSPEs of a small set of alternative models that nest the benchmark. Our procedures compare the bench-mark to all the alternative models simultaneously rather than sequentially, and do...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605076