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Default Risk Premia on Government Bonds in a Quantitative Macroeconomic Model

Juessen, Falko; Linnemann, Ludger; Schabert, Andreas - 2009

This paper examines the pricing of public debt in a quantitative macroeconomic model with government default risk. Default may occur due to a fiscal policy that does not preclude a Ponzi game. When a build-up of public debt makes this outcome inevitable, households stop lending such that the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010325941

Fiscal Deficits, Financial Fragility, and the Effectiveness of Government Policies

Kirchner, Markus; van Wijnbergen, Sweder - 2012

Recent macro developments in the euro area have highlighted the interactions between fiscal policy, sovereign debt, and financial fragility. We take a structural macroeconomic model with frictions in the financial intermediation process, in line with recent research, but introduce asset choice...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010326246

Determinants of government bond spreads in new EU countries

Alexopoulou, Ioana; Bunda, Irina; Ferrando, Annalisa - 2009

Based on a rich database of government bond spreads and macroeconomic indicators over the period 2001-2008, we propose an empirical assessment of the role of fundamentals in driving long-term sovereign bond spreads of the new EU countries (Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Latvia, Lithuania, Hungary,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605139

Fiscal variables and bond spreads: evidence from eastern European countries and Turkey

Nickel, Christiane; Rother, Philipp; Rülke, Jan C. - 2009

We investigate the impact of fiscal variables on bond yield spreads relative to US Treasury bonds in the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Russia and Turkey from May 1998 to December 2007. To account for the importance of market expectations we use projected values for fiscal and macroeconomic...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605147

Discretionary Fiscal Policies over the Cycle: New Evidence based on the ESCB Disaggregated Approach

Agnello, Luca; Cimadomo, Jacopo - 2009

This paper explores how discretionary fiscal policies on the revenue side of the government budget have reacted to economic fluctuations in European Union countries. For this purpose, it uses data on legislated revenue changes and structural indicators provided twice per year by National Central...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605164

What explains the surge in euro area sovereign spreads during the financial crisis of 2007-09?

Attinasi, Maria-Grazia; Checherita-Westphal, Cristina; … - 2009

This paper uses a dynamic panel approach to explain the determinants of widening sovereign bond yield spreads vis-à-vis Germany in selected euro area countries during the period end-July 2007 to end-March 2009, when the financial turmoil developed into a full-blown financial and economic...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605177

Government bond risk premiums in the EU revisited: the impact of the financial crisis

Schuknecht, Ludger; von Hagen, Jürgen; Wolswijk, Guido - 2010

This note looks at US$ and DM/Euro denominated government bond spreads relative to US and German benchmark bonds before and after the start of the current financial crisis. The study finds, first, that bond yield spreads before and during the crisis can largely be explained on the basis of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605198

The impact of news and the SMP on realized (co)variances in the eurozone sovereign debt market

Beetsma, Roel; de Jong, Frank; Giuliodori, Massimo; … - 2014

We use realised variances and co-variances based on intraday data from Eurozone sovereign bond market to measure the dependence structure of eurozone sovereign yields. Our analysis focuses on the impact of news, obtained from the Eurointelligence newsflash, on the dependence structure. More news...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605674

State-dependent effects of tax changes in Germany and the United Kingdom

Hayo, Bernd; Mierzwa, Sascha - 2021

We study state-dependent effects of narratively identified tax shocks in Germany and the UK over the period 1974Q1 …-2018Q4 using local projections. In addition, we distinguish between aggregated and disaggregated tax types (direct and … indirect taxes) as well as look for possible asymmetries between tax hikes and tax cuts. We find a number of differences across …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012653874

Spillovers from tax shocks to the euro area

Mierzwa, Sascha - 2021

I study the spill-over effects of legislated discretionary tax changes in the United States, Germany, and the United … spillovers from US tax legislation to have the smallest effects on Eurozone countries' real GDP and UK tax changes to exert the … largest effect. There is substantial heterogeneity in both the sign and size of spillovers after US and German aggregated tax …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012653882