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The Role of Fiscal Policies for External Imbalances : Evidence from the European Union

Afonso, António; Coelho, José - 2021

two deficits is asymmetric and the negative impact of the recent Eurozone banking and sovereign debt crisis on the current … positive impact of the budget balance on the current account balance is higher in the cases of non-Eurozone countries, high … budget deficit countries, and low exports countries, whereas it is lower in the cases of Eurozone countries, low budget …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013247757

Twin Deficits Through the Looking Glass : Time-Varying Analysis in the Euro Area

Afonso, António; Coelho, José - 2022

Using two measures of the fiscal position, the cyclically adjusted primary budget balance (CAPB) and the total budget balance, we assess the Twin Deficit Hypothesis for the Euro Area in the period 1995-2020. Furthermore, we estimate time-varying coefficients of the current account balance...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013307056

Fiscal and Current Account Imbalances : The Cases of Germany and Portugal

Afonso, António; Coelho, José - 2021

We investigate the bilateral relationship between government budget balances and current account balances for Portugal and Germany. We find that the response of the current account balance to the budget balance is greater in Portugal than in Germany. On the other hand, the response of the budget...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013312370

What Do We Really Know about Fiscal Sustainability in the EU? A Panel Data Diagnostic

Afonso, António - 2007

We assess the sustainability of public finances in the EU15 over the period 1970-2006 using stationarity and cointegration analysis. Specifically, we use panel unit root tests of the first and second generation allowing in some cases for structural breaks. We also apply modern panel...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012775987

The Effects of Macroeconomic, Fiscal and Monetary Policy Announcements on Sovereign Bond Spreads : An Event Study from the EMU

Afonso, António; Jalles, João Tovar; Kazemi, Mina - 2019

We assess the impact of announcements corresponding to different fiscal and monetary policy measures on the 10-year sovereign bond yield spreads (relative to Germany) of the 10 EMU countries during the period 01:1999 - 07:2016. Implementing pooled and country-fixed effects OLS regressions, we...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014108277

The Effects of Monetary Policy Surprises and Fiscal Sustainability Regimes in the Euro Area

Afonso, António; Alves, José; Ionta, Serena - 2023

We study the effect of monetary surprise shocks on real output and the price level, conditioned on different fiscal sustainability regimes in the period 2001Q4-2021Q4. First, we estimate time-varying fiscal sustainability coefficients based on Bohn’s (1998) approach through Schlicht’s (2003)...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014346577

60%, -4% and 6%, a Tale of Thresholds for EU Fiscal and Current Account Developments

Afonso, António; Coelho, José - 2021

balance on the current account balance is greater in Eurozone countries, for those countries with an average current account …%. Conversely, in non-Eurozone countries, after 2010, the impact of the fiscal balance on the current account balance is less …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013212136

Euro Area Time-Varying Cyclicality of Fiscal Policy

Afonso, António; Carvalho, Francisco Tiago - 2021

We assess the cyclicality of fiscal policy in the 19 Euro area countries, notably during recessions, for the period 1995-2020. We use a time-varying measure of fiscal cyclicality to describe fiscal policy developments. The results suggest that during recessions discretionary fiscal policy...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013321855

Investigating Inflation Persistence Across Monetary Regimes

Benati, Luca - 2021

Under inflation targeting inflation exhibits negative serial correlation in the United Kingdom, and little or no persistence in Canada, Sweden and New Zealand, and estimates of the indexation parameter in hybrid New Keynesian Phillips curves are either equal to zero, or very low, in all...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013316644

Business Cycle Synchronization and Insurance Mechanisms in the EU

Afonso, António; Furceri, Davide - 2021

In this paper we provide a positive exercise on past business-cycle correlations and risk sharing in the European Union, and on the ability of insurance mechanisms and fiscal policies to smooth income fluctuations. The results suggest in particular that while some of the new Member States have...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013316670