Over the last two centuries, the cross-spectral coherence between either narrow or broad money growth and inflation at … other countries, thus implying that the fraction of inflation’s long-run variation explained by long-run money growth has … correspondence with the inflationary outbursts associated with World War I and the Great Inflation–but not World War II …

We use a Bayesian time-varying parameters structural VAR with stochastic volatility for GDP deflator inflation, real … Inflation was due, to a dominant extent, to large demand non-policy shocks, and to a lesser extent–especially in 1973 and 1979 … difference in terms of inflation and output growth outcomes; and (3)mechanically ‘bringing the Monetary Policy Committee vback in …

We develop a time-varying transition probabilities Markov Switching model in which inflation is characterised by two … regimes (high and low inflation). Using Bayesian techniques, we apply the model to the euro area, Germany, the US, the UK and … switches between inflation regimes. Thus money growth provides an important early warning indicator for risks to price …

We use a joint model of macroeconomic and term structure dynamics to estimate inflation risk premia in the United … inflation and interest rate expectations at various future horizons, as well as term structure data from both nominal and index …-linked bonds. Our results show that, in both currency areas, inflation risk premia are relatively small, positive, and increasing …