Macroeconomists are increasingly using nonlinear models to account for the effects of risk in the analysis of business … cycles. In the monetary business cycle models widely used at central banks, an explicit recognition of risk generates a wedge … modification to the standard monetary policy rule to eliminate the wedge. In the proposed risk-adjusted policy rule, the intercept …

A large empirical literature suggests that risk premia on stocks or corporate bonds are large and countercyclical. This … paper studies a simple real business cycle model with a small, exogenously time-varying risk of disaster, and shows that it … can replicate several important facts documented in the literature. In the model, an increase in disaster risk leads to a …

riskiness of counter parties and issuers is endogenous to the central bank's credit policies and related risk control framework …

In this paper we study the impact of shocks to global risk and global risk aversion (such as Lehman) as well as shocks … securities which are consistently safe haven assets, namely experiencing portfolio inflows when risk is on the rise or perceived … in certain risk measures. We also find that the role of US-based crises and risk shocks is special, with the US not …

Using regionally disaggregated data on economic activity, we show that risk sharing plays a key role in shaping the … real effects of monetary policy. With weak risk sharing, monetary policy shocks trigger a strong and durable response in … output. With strong risk sharing, the response is attenuated, and output reverts to its initial level over the medium term …