inflation almost universally to the upside; and the second – starting well into the post-Lehman period – characterised by … stability with a hard 2% ceiling, functioned as a key shock-absorber in the relatively high-inflation years prior to the crisis … inflation and economic activity …

inflation would have been 1.1 p.p. and 0.75 p.p. lower, respectively, and the unemployment rate 1.1 p.p. higher than they …

This paper explores the role that inflation forecasts play in the uncertainty surrounding the estimated effects of … alternative monetary rules on unemployment dynamics in the euro area and the US. We use the inflation forecasts of 8 competing … relative to the different inflation models under two rules. The results suggest that model uncertainty can be a serious issue …