breaks in the performance of most simple Phillips curves. Euro area inflation was particularly hard to forecast in the run … practitioners, we find that: (i) the key type of time variation to consider is an inflation trend; (ii) a simple filter-based output …

inflation. We find that based on a cointegrated VAR model there is a positive long-run relationship between inflation and the … found does not sufficiently take into account changes in policy settings following the high inflation experiences in the 1970 …

We propose a framework to identify a rich set of structural drivers of inflation in order to understand the role of the … multiple and concomitant sources of the post-pandemic inflation surge. We specify a medium-sized structural Bayesian VAR on a … post-pandemic inflation surge, also for core inflation. Being able to gauge the impact of such shocks is useful for policy …

breaks in the performance of most simple Phillips curves. Euro area inflation was particularly hard to forecast in the run … practitioners, we find that: (i) the key type of time variation to consider is an inflation trend; (ii) a simple filter-based output …

The link between US labor cost and price inflation has weakened notably over the past three decades. In this paper we … economy of late: (i) improved anchoring of inflation expectations; (ii) the changing constellation of shocks hitting the … economy; (iii) increased trade integration and (iv) rising firm market power. We find that the improved anchoring of inflation …

This paper documents, for the first time in a systematic manner, the link between labor cost and price inflation in the … and price inflation in the four major economies of the euro area and across the three main sectors. The dynamic …. Our results show that it is more likely that labor costs are passed on to price inflation with demand shocks than with …

, subsequently, we didn't see the inflation they predicted. We show that these puzzles disappear in a Vector Autoregressive model … much of the inflation dynamics in the 2012-2014 euro area missing inflation episode. Consequently, economists and models … that excessively focused on the global nature of inflation were liable to miss the contribution of deflationary domestic …

This paper documents, for the first time in a systematic manner, the link between labor cost and price inflation in the … and price inflation in the four major economies of the euro area and across the three main sectors. The dynamic …. Our results show that it is more likely that labor costs are passed on to price inflation with demand shocks than with …

changes does not change much with inflation and does not react much to aggregate shocks; (vi) changes in inflation are mostly … consistent with the predictions of a menu cost model in a low inflation environment where idiosyncratic shocks are a more …