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Missing Disinflation and Missing Inflation : The Puzzles that Aren't

Bobeica, Elena - 2017

In the immediate wake of the Great Recession we didn't see the disinflation that most models predicted and, subsequently, we didn't see the inflation they predicted. We show that these puzzles disappear in a Vector Autoregressive model that properly accounts for domestic and global factors. Such...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012963925

The Link between Labor Cost and Price Inflation in the Euro Area

Bobeica, Elena - 2019

This paper documents, for the first time in a systematic manner, the link between labor cost and price inflation in the euro area. Using country and sector quarterly data over the period 1985Q1-2018Q1 we find a strong link between labor cost and price inflation in the four major economies of the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012893508

Does the Phillips Curve Help to Forecast Euro Area Inflation?

Banbura, Marta - 2020

We find that it does, but choosing the right specification is not trivial. We unveil notable model instability, with breaks in the performance of most simple Phillips curves. Euro area inflation was particularly hard to forecast in the run-up to the EMU and after the sovereign debt crisis, when...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012822484

Exports and Domestic Demand Pressure : A Dynamic Panel Data Model for the Euro Area Countries

Bobeica, Elena - 2015

The paper investigates the link between domestic demand pressure and exports by considering an error correction dynamic panel model for eleven euro area countries over the last two decades. The results suggest that there is a statistically significant substitution effect between domestic and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013024782

The Role of Price and Cost Competitiveness for Intra- and Extra-Euro Area Trade of Euro Area Countries

Bobeica, Elena - 2016

This paper studies the importance of price and cost competitiveness for intra- and extra-euro area trade flows of euro area countries. A standard error correction framework shows that price competitiveness is a relatively more important driver of trade flows outside the euro area as compared to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012984573

What Drives Export Market Shares? It Depends! An Empirical Analysis Using Bayesian Model Averaging

Osbat, Chiara - 2017

investigate the drivers of export market shares of 25 EU countries, considering a wide range of traditional indicators along with … from China have strongly affected export performance since the early 2000s. In the case of old EU Member States, investment …, quality of institutions and available liquidity to firms also appear to play a role. For the new EU Member States, labour and …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012950748