Showing 1 - 10 of 10
We study market perception of sovereign credit risk in the euro area during the financial crisis. In our analysis we use a parsimonious CDS pricing model to estimate the probability of default (PD) and the loss given default (LGD) as perceived by financial markets. We find that separate...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013052936
We analyze the market assessment of sovereign credit risk in an emerging market using a reduced-form model to price the credit default swap (CDS) spreads thus enabling us to derive values for the probability of default (PD) and loss given default (LGD) from the quotes of sovereign CDS contracts....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012987488
We analyze the market assessment of sovereign credit risk in an emerging market using a reduced-form model to price the credit default swap (CDS) spreads thus enabling us to derive values for the probability of default (PD) and loss given default (LGD) from the quotes of sovereign CDS contracts....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012987870
In this paper we study the impact that financial reputation and official market interventions have on the timing and amount of debt issuance decisions by banks. To do so, we propose an extension of the two-part modelling framework of Cragg (1971, eq. 7 and 9) to accommodate random effects. We...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013044653
This paper sheds light on how recent financial tensions in the euro area were ultimately reflected in bank interest rate setting. We make two new contributions. First, we develop a theoretical model capturing banks financing and the rate setting choices. Banks in the model can finance themselves...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012982915
’s forecasting performance relative to a number of benchmarks, including a Bayesian VAR. We finally consider several applications to … illustrate the potential contributions the NAWM can make to forecasting and policy analysis. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604990
In this paper we review the methodology of forecasting with log-linearised DSGE models using Bayesian methods. We focus … matrix of h-step ahead forecasts. In the empirical analysis, we examine the forecasting performance of the New Area … scope for improving the NAWM’s forecasting performance. For example, the model is not able to explain the moderation in wage …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605231
distribution. As an empirical illustration, we use euro area data and compare the forecasting performance of the New Area …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605581
Forward guidance operates via the expectations formation process of the agents in the economy. In standard quantitative macroeconomic models, the expectations are unobserved state variables and little scrutiny is devoted to analysing the dynamic behaviour of these expectations. We show that the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012422086
and standard empirical benchmarks. The design is aligned to its role as workhorse model in the context of the forecasting …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012142159