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Nowcasting GDP and Inflation : The Real-Time Informational Content of Macroeconomic Data Releases

Giannone, Domenico; Reichlin, Lucrezia; Small, David H. - 2021

This paper formalizes the process of updating the nowcast and forecast on out-put and inflation as new releases of data … Philadelphia surveys have a large marginal impact on the nowcast of both inflation variables and real variables and this effect is … sizeable. Prices and quantities affect the precision of the estimates of inflation while GDP is only affected by real variables …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013318105

New Facts on Consumer Price Rigidity in the Euro Area

Gautier, Erwan; Conflitti, Cristina; Faber, Riemer P.; … - 2022

changes does not change much with inflation and does not react much to aggregate shocks; (vi) changes in inflation are mostly … consistent with the predictions of a menu cost model in a low inflation environment where idiosyncratic shocks are a more …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014082035

Nowcasting GDP and inflation: the real-time informational content of macroeconomic data releases

Giannone, Domenico; Reichlin, Lucrezia; Small, David H. - 2006

This paper formalizes the process of updating the nowcast and forecast on output and inflation as new releases of data … Philadelphia surveys have a large marginal impact on the nowcast of both inflation variables and real variables and this effect is … sizeable. Prices and quantities affect the precision of the estimates of inflation while GDP is only affected by real variables …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604679

Money, Credit, Monetary Policy and the Business Cycle in the Euro Area : What Has Changed since the Crisis?

Giannone, Domenico - 2019

This paper studies the relationship between the business cycle and financial intermediation in the euro area. We establish stylized facts and study their stability during the global financial crisis and the European sovereign debt crisis. Long-term interest rates have been exceptionally high and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012893985

Short-term Forecasts of Euro Area GDP Growth

Angelini, Elena; Camba-Mendez, Gonzalo; Giannone, Domenico - 2021

This paper evaluates models that exploit timely monthly releases to compute early estimates of current quarter GDP (now-casting) in the euro area. We compare traditional methods used at institutions with a new method proposed by Giannone, Reichlin, and Small (2005). The method consists in...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013316473