Density forecasts of euro area inflation are a fundamental input for a medium-term oriented central bank, such as the … euro area (headline and core) inflation and a large set of determinants, is competitive with state-of-the-art linear … ECB point inflation forecasts, displaying similar deviations from "linearity". Given that the ECB modelling toolbox is …

changes does not change much with inflation and does not react much to aggregate shocks; (vi) changes in inflation are mostly … consistent with the predictions of a menu cost model in a low inflation environment where idiosyncratic shocks are a more …

Density forecasts of euro area inflation are a fundamental input for a medium-term oriented central bank, such as the … euro area (headline and core) inflation and a large set of determinants, is competitive with state-of-the-art linear … ECB point inflation forecasts, displaying similar deviations from “linearity”. Given that the ECB modelling toolbox is …

are consistent with the behavior of inflation. We label these deviations the output gap. In order to pin-down the features … of the model, we evaluate the accuracy of real-time inflation forecasts from different model specifications. The version … that forecasts inflation best implies that after the 2011 sovereign debt crisis the output gap in the euro area has been …