This paper estimates a time-varying AR-GARCH model of inflation producing measures of inflation uncertainty for the … change associated with the start of EMU in 1999. The main findings are as follows. Steadystate inflation and inflation … can achieve lower inflation uncertainty by lowering the inflation rate. …

This paper estimates a time-varying AR-GARCH model of inflation producing measures of inflation uncertainty for the … change associated with the start of EMU in 1999. The main findings are as follows. Steadystate inflation and inflation … can achieve lower inflation uncertainty by lowering the inflation rate …

inflation and the role of inflation expectations. In relation to the recent weakness of inflation, we discuss the role of firm … supports the view that the absorption of slack and a firm anchoring of inflation expectations remain central to successful … inflation stabilisation …

relationship between inflation and inflation expectations in the euro area. We use theoretical structures based on the New … stability, a few years where inflation was driven mainly by external shocks, and the financial crisis, where the New Keynesian … expectations on inflation and a resurgence of the 'sacrifice ratio' …

important determinants of inflation over the sample. We then forecast core inflation 12 quarters ahead and present its … manner, the convergence towards a sustainable path of inflation …

changes does not change much with inflation and does not react much to aggregate shocks; (vi) changes in inflation are mostly … consistent with the predictions of a menu cost model in a low inflation environment where idiosyncratic shocks are a more …

Price inflation in the euro area has been stable and low since the Global Financial Crisis, despite notable changes in … output and unemployment. We show that an increasing share of high markup firms is part of the explanation of why inflation … countries and, by linking these markup developments to the evolution of sectoral level producer and consumer price inflation, we …