We assess how firm expectations about future production impact current production and pricing decisions. Our analysis is based on a large survey of firms in the German manufacturing sector. To identify the causal effect of expectations, we rely on the timing of survey responses and match firms...

The macroeconomic effects of climate-related events and climate policies depend on the interaction between demand- and supply-type of shocks that those events and policies imply. Using a panel of 24 OECD countries for the sample 1990-2019 and a standard macroeconomic framework, the paper tests...

What are the drivers of business cycle fluctuations? And how many are there? By documenting strong and predictable co-movement of real variables during the business cycle in a sample of advanced economies, we argue that most business cycle fluctuations a re d riven b y o ne major factor. The...