indicators in predicting euro area HICP inflation out-of-sample over the period first quarter 1999 till third quarter 2006 …

The period of extraordinary volatility in euro area headline inflation starting in 2007 raised the question whether … for HICP headline inflation and HICP excluding food and energy. We investigate how forecast accuracy of the combination … including the global financial crisis with its extraordinary volatility in inflation. Overall, we find that forecast combination …

indicators in predicting euro area HICP inflation out-of-sample over the period first quarter 1999 till third quarter 2006 …

linked to the monetary policy regime. Before and after the "Great Inflation", nominal wages moved in the same direction as … the (required) adjustment of real wages, and in the opposite direction of the price response. During the "Great Inflation … increasing inflation volatility. Using a standard DSGE model, we show that these stylized facts, in particular the estimated …

linked to the monetary policy regime. Before and after the "Great Inflation", nominal wages moved in the same direction as … the (required) adjustment of real wages, and in the opposite direction of the price response. During the "Great Inflation … increasing inflation volatility. Using a standard DSGE model, we show that these stylized facts, in particular the estimated …

breaks in the performance of most simple Phillips curves. Euro area inflation was particularly hard to forecast in the run … practitioners, we find that: (i) the key type of time variation to consider is an inflation trend; (ii) a simple filter-based output …

relationship between inflation and inflation expectations in the euro area. We use theoretical structures based on the New … stability, a few years where inflation was driven mainly by external shocks, and the financial crisis, where the New Keynesian … expectations on inflation and a resurgence of the 'sacrifice ratio' …

results suggest that euro-area inflation forecasts have reacted less to unemployment forecasts after the start of the … financial crisis but another cost measure (energy inflation) remains significant. This finding is consistent with a flatter … better anchoring of inflation expectations and increases in structural unemployment do not seem to find support in the survey …

We develop a theoretical model that features a business cycle-dependent relation between output, price inflation and … inflation expectations, augmenting the model by Svensson (1997) with a nonlinear Phillips curve that reflects the rationale … pronounced convex relationship between inflation and the output gap, meaning that the co-efficient in the Phillips curve on the …

How long does it take for exchange rate changes to pass through into inflation? Does it make a difference whether the …