area, Japan, and U.K.) a compression in the long-term yield spread exerts a powerful effect on both output growth and … inflation. Second, conditional on available estimates of the impact of the FED's and the Bank of England's asset purchase …

-form) properties of the economy. Based on estimated models for the Great Inflation and the most recent period, I show that, as a … role played by monetary policy in exacerbating the Great Depression, causing the Great Inflation, or fostering the Great …

: lagged expectations about monetary policy influence the current inflation rate through an indexation rule. No structural … inflation persistence is assumed. We show that this model can capture stylized facts about short-run inflation dynamics both in … between the degree of inflation persistence and the stability and transparency of monetary policy. Thereby, our model can …

We jointly estimate the natural rate of interest, the natural rate of unemployment, expected inflation, and potential … output for the Euro area, the United States, Sweden, Australia, and the United Kingdom. Particular attention is paid to time …-variation in (i) the data-generation process for inflation, which we capture via a time-varying parameters specification for the …

predictive power of the output gap for inflation in the euro area. We find evidence of changes in trend growth around the … estimates in real time. Our measures help forecasting inflation over most of our evaluation sample (2001-2010) but fail …

(2012) estimated on euro area data. It investigates to what extent forecasts of inflation, GDP growth and unemployment by …

higher wage flexibility would help ease the impact on real output at the expense of wider fluctuations in inflation. Finally …