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area, Japan, and U.K.) a compression in the long-term yield spread exerts a powerful effect on both output growth and … inflation. Second, conditional on available estimates of the impact of the FED's and the Bank of England's asset purchase …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013137091
-form) properties of the economy. Based on estimated models for the Great Inflation and the most recent period, I show that, as a … role played by monetary policy in exacerbating the Great Depression, causing the Great Inflation, or fostering the Great …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013144289
We evaluate residual projection strategies in the context of a large-scale macro model of the euro area and smaller benchmark time-series models. The exercises attempt to measure the accuracy of model-based forecasts simulated both out-of-sample and in-sample. Both exercises incorporate...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013316469
: lagged expectations about monetary policy influence the current inflation rate through an indexation rule. No structural … inflation persistence is assumed. We show that this model can capture stylized facts about short-run inflation dynamics both in … between the degree of inflation persistence and the stability and transparency of monetary policy. Thereby, our model can …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012779241
We jointly estimate the natural rate of interest, the natural rate of unemployment, expected inflation, and potential … output for the Euro area, the United States, Sweden, Australia, and the United Kingdom. Particular attention is paid to time …-variation in (i) the data-generation process for inflation, which we capture via a time-varying parameters specification for the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013316896
predictive power of the output gap for inflation in the euro area. We find evidence of changes in trend growth around the … estimates in real time. Our measures help forecasting inflation over most of our evaluation sample (2001-2010) but fail …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013120226
Building on the New Area Wide Model, we develop a 4-region macroeconomic model of the euro area and the world economy. The model (EAGLE, Euro Area and Global Economy model) is microfounded and designed for conducting quantitative policy analysis of macroeconomic interdependence across regions...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013143817
In this paper, we outline a version of the New Area-Wide Model (NAWM) of the euro area designed for use in the (Broad) Macroeconomic Projection Exercises regularly undertaken by ECB/Eurosystem staff. We present estimation results for the NAWM that are obtained by employing Bayesian inference...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012770293
(2012) estimated on euro area data. It investigates to what extent forecasts of inflation, GDP growth and unemployment by …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013078530
higher wage flexibility would help ease the impact on real output at the expense of wider fluctuations in inflation. Finally …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013316624