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Reporting Biases and Survey Results : Evidence from European Professional Forecasters
Garcia, Juan A.; Manzanares, Andres - 2021
Using data from the ECB's Survey of Professional Forecasters, we investigate the reporting practices of survey participants by comparing their point predictions and the mean/median/mode of their probability forecasts. We find that the individual point predictions, on average, tend to be biased...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013316742
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Keynesian Government Spending Multipliers and Spillovers in the Euro Area
Cwik, Tobias J. - 2010
The global financial crisis has lead to a renewed interest in discretionary fiscal stimulus. Advocates of discretionary measures emphasize that government spending can stimulate additional private spending — the Keynesian multiplier effect. Thus, we investigate whether the spending package...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013136289
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Governments' Payment Discipline : The Macroeconomic Impact of Public Payment Delays and Arrears
Checherita-Westphal, Cristina D. - 2015
This paper considers the impact of changes in governments' payment discipline on the private sector. We argue that increased delays in public payments can affect private sector liquidity and profits and hence ultimately economic growth. We test this prediction empirically for European Union...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013025488
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The Impact of Numerical Expenditure Rules on Budgetary Discipline Over the Cycle
Holm-Hadulla, Federic - 2010
in the budgetary process expenditure policy might be prone to a pro-cyclical bias. However, this tendency may be … changes in the output gap, and (ii) numerical expenditure rules reduce this pro-cyclical bias. Moreover, the pro …-cyclical spending bias is found to be particularly pronounced for spending items with a high degree of budgetary flexibility …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013146218
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Revenue versus Spending-Based Consolidation Plans : The Role of Follow-Up
Beetsma, Roel M. W. J.; Furtuna, Oana; Giuliodori, Massimo - 2021
The literature on fiscal multipliers finds that spending-based fiscal consolidations tend to have more benign macro-economic consequences than revenue-based consolidations. By directly comparing expost data with consolidation plans, we present evidence of a systematically weaker follow-up of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013315403
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Transmission of Government Spending Shocks in the Euro Area : Time Variation and Driving Forces
Kirchner, Markus; Cimadomo, Jacopo; Hauptmeier, Sebastian - 2021
This paper provides new evidence on the effects of government spending shocks and the fiscal transmission mechanism in the euro area for the period 1980-2008. Our contribution is two-fold. First, we investigate changes in the macroeconomic impact of government spending shocks using time-varying...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013316199
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Government Size, Composition, Volatility and Economic Growth
Afonso, António; Furceri, Davide - 2021
This paper analyses the effects in terms of size and volatility of government revenue and spending on growth in OECD and EU countries. The results of the paper suggest that both variables are detrimental to growth. In particular, looking more closely at the effect of each component of government...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013316642
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Economic Growth and Budgetary Components : A Panel Assessment for the EU
Afonso, António; Gonzalez-Alegre, Juan - 2021
In this paper we test whether a reallocation of government budget items can enhance long-term GDP growth in a set of European countries. We apply modern panel data techniques to the period 1970-2006, and we use three alternative dependent variables in a growth regression: economic growth, total...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013316645
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How successful are exchange rate communication and interventions? Evidence from time-series and event-study approaches
Fratzscher, Marcel - 2005
The paper analyses whether communication and actual interventions in FX markets are successful in moving exchange rates over the medium- to long-run. It compares empirical evidence based on time-series analysis with that obtained from an eventstudy approach. Both the time-series approach based...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604574
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The transmission of emerging market shocks to global equity markets
Cuadro Sáez, Lucía; Fratzscher, Marcel; Thimann, Christian - 2007
The paper analyses whether, and to what extent, emerging market economies (EMEs) have systemic importance for global financial markets, above and beyond their influence during crises episodes. Using a novel database of exogenous economic and political shocks for 14 systematically relevant EMEs,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604770