Showing 1 - 10 of 47
linked to the monetary policy regime. Before and after the "Great Inflation", nominal wages moved in the same direction as … the (required) adjustment of real wages, and in the opposite direction of the price response. During the "Great Inflation … increasing inflation volatility. Using a standard DSGE model, we show that these stylized facts, in particular the estimated …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013316191
linked to the monetary policy regime. Before and after the "Great Inflation", nominal wages moved in the same direction as … the (required) adjustment of real wages, and in the opposite direction of the price response. During the "Great Inflation … increasing inflation volatility. Using a standard DSGE model, we show that these stylized facts, in particular the estimated …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605276
period of 1994-2008. Except for short-term forecasts of inflation and interest rates, it is as good as or clearly outperforms …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013155104
period of 1994-2008. Except for short-term forecasts of inflation and interest rates, it is as good as or clearly outperforms …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605156
In this paper we review the methodology of forecasting with log-linearised DSGE models using Bayesian methods. We focus on the estimation of their predictive distributions, with special attention being paid to the mean and the covariance matrix of h-step ahead forecasts. In the empirical...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605231
This paper shows how to compute the h-step-ahead predictive likelihood for any subset of the observed variables in parametric discrete time series models estimated with Bayesian methods. The subset of variables may vary across forecast horizons and the problem thereby covers marginal and joint...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013083316
In this paper we review the methodology of forecasting with log-linearised DSGE models using Bayesian methods. We focus on the estimation of their predictive distributions, with special attention being paid to the mean and the covariance matrix of h-step ahead forecasts. In the empirical...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013144596
that the root cause is its inability to predict domestic and foreign inflation. This shortcoming leads us toward simpler …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012988876
better as well as jointly with inflation. For the marginal inflation forecasts, the same holds for the inner quarters of the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014258211
-specific models include a Phillips curve determining inflation, an IS curve determining output, a Taylor Rule determining interest …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605285