out to be only a slowdown, and inflation never departed from levels consistent with the ECB's quantitative definition of …

is derived from policy-makers' preferences about inflation outcomes, we first show that downside risks to price stability … bias in the risk balance throughout our evaluation period because of the implied amplification of deflation risks. We then … future inflation can provide insurance against the materialization of such upside risks …

reaching favourable macroeconomic outcomes (i.e. recovering pandemic output losses and bringing inflation close to the ECB …

We use a joint model of macroeconomic and term structure dynamics to estimate inflation risk premia in the United … inflation and interest rate expectations at various future horizons, as well as term structure data from both nominal and index …-linked bonds. Our results show that, in both currency areas, inflation risk premia are relatively small, positive, and increasing …

In this paper we report results on inflation persistence using 79 inflation series covering the EU countries, the euro … area and the US for five different inflation variables. The picture that emerges is one of moderate inflation persistence … across the board. In particular we find euro area inflation persistence to be broadly in line with US inflation persistence …

-mean autoregressive model can be used to describe characteristic features in inflation series. This implies that we decompose the … inflation process into a slowly moving nonstationary component and dynamic short-run fluctuations around it. An important … quantity to be forecast. This makes it possible to form a single model-based inflation forecast that also incorporates the …

on output and, in particular, also on inflation in the euro area under alternative settings for monetary policy. We … that this over-proportionality is stronger for the fiscal multiplier on inflation than on output. We relate this finding to …