Showing 1 - 10 of 104
The elasticity of substitution between domestic and imported goods is a central parameter in macroeconomic models, but after decades of empirical studies there is no consensus on its magnitude. Earlier literature using time series arrives at low values, while more recent studies using...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013100338
Using data from the ECB's Survey of Professional Forecasters, we investigate the reporting practices of survey participants by comparing their point predictions and the mean/median/mode of their probability forecasts. We find that the individual point predictions, on average, tend to be biased...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013316742
IFC as the debt bias would fall. However, when other considerations eclipse competence and give the incumbent a strong … electoral advantage or disadvantage, setting up an IFC may be counterproductive as the debt bias would increase. If the … bias if voters care sufficiently about policymakers' competence; (ii) not all political environments are conducive to the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012949941
The global financial crisis has lead to a renewed interest in discretionary fiscal stimulus. Advocates of discretionary measures emphasize that government spending can stimulate additional private spending — the Keynesian multiplier effect. Thus, we investigate whether the spending package...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013136289
In this paper we revisit the literature on the economic consequences from inefficiency in public services provision. Following Dupuit (1844) and Pigou (1947) we argue that it is important to take the financing side explicitly into account. The fact that public expenditure financing must rely on...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012780822
This paper provides empirical evidence showing that smaller countries tend to have more volatile government spending for a sample of 160 countries from 1960 to 2000. We argue that the larger size of a country decreases the volatility of government spending because it acts as an insurance against...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012770792
This paper considers the impact of changes in governments' payment discipline on the private sector. We argue that increased delays in public payments can affect private sector liquidity and profits and hence ultimately economic growth. We test this prediction empirically for European Union...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013025488
in the budgetary process expenditure policy might be prone to a pro-cyclical bias. However, this tendency may be … changes in the output gap, and (ii) numerical expenditure rules reduce this pro-cyclical bias. Moreover, the pro …-cyclical spending bias is found to be particularly pronounced for spending items with a high degree of budgetary flexibility …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013146218
The literature on fiscal multipliers finds that spending-based fiscal consolidations tend to have more benign macro-economic consequences than revenue-based consolidations. By directly comparing expost data with consolidation plans, we present evidence of a systematically weaker follow-up of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013315403
This paper provides new evidence on the effects of government spending shocks and the fiscal transmission mechanism in the euro area for the period 1980-2008. Our contribution is two-fold. First, we investigate changes in the macroeconomic impact of government spending shocks using time-varying...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013316199