This paper decomposes the time-varying effect of exogenous exchange rate shocks on euro area countries inflation into … quarters of the past six years, especially in turning point periods. Our main results indicate that headline inflation in euro … inflation this increasing sensitivity is solely reliant on a sustained surge in the degree of comovement, for energy inflation …

indicators in predicting euro area HICP inflation out-of-sample over the period first quarter 1999 till third quarter 2006 …

The quantity theory of money predicts a positive relationship between monetary growth and inflation over long …-run horizons. However, in the short-run, transitory shocks to either money or inflation can obscure the inflationary signal …. A ‘money augmented’ Phillips curve that links inflation to money tightness and demand shocks of medium to long …

Surprisingly it did not, or at least not directly. Using micro data on consumer prices and sectoral inflation rates … has altered the behaviour of retail price setting and/or inflation dynamics. We find no evidence that anything has changed … earlier patterns. On the contrary, we do find evidence of a decline in the persistence of the inflation process in the mid …

Under inflation targeting inflation exhibits negative serial correlation in the United Kingdom, and little or no …, inflation appears to be (nearly) purely forward-looking, so that no mechanism introducing backward-looking components is … necessary to fit the data. These results question the notion that the intrinsic inflation persistence found in post-WWII U …

This paper reviews recent approaches to modeling the labour market and assesses their implications for inflation … volatile inflation. Models with wage stickiness and right-to-manage bargaining or with firm-specific labour emerge as the most …

) with a special focus on persistence of real wages, wage and price inflation. The analysis is conducted within a structural … model, as well as the cointegrating properties of the estimated system. Overall, in the long run, wage and price inflation …

assumptions on the functional correspondence between price inflation, inflation expectations and marginal costs. Expectations are … not assumed to be an unbiased predictor of actual inflation and instead derived from the European Commission’s Consumer … Survey data. The results suggest that expectations drive inflation with a lag of about 6 months, which casts further doubt on …

estimates for inflation forecasting both in the short term (one-quarter and one-year ahead) and the medium term (two-year and …