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Professional Forecasters and the Real-time Forecasting Performance of an Estimated New Keynesian Model for the Euro Area
Smets, Frank - 2013
(2012) estimated on euro area data. It investigates to what extent forecasts of inflation, GDP growth and unemployment by …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013078530
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Nowcasting Employment in the Euro Area
Banbura, Marta; Belousova, Irina; Bodnár, Katalin; … - 2023
Euro area labour market variables are published with a considerable lag, longer than in the case of real GDP. We develop a suite of models to provide a more timely estimate (nowcast) of euro area quarterly employment growth based on a broad range of monthly indicators. The suite includes a batch...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014354741
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The New Area-Wide Model of the Euro Area : A Micro-Founded Open-Economy Model for Forecasting and Policy Analysis
Christoffel, Kai Philipp - 2008
In this paper, we outline a version of the New Area-Wide Model (NAWM) of the euro area designed for use in the (Broad) Macroeconomic Projection Exercises regularly undertaken by ECB/Eurosystem staff. We present estimation results for the NAWM that are obtained by employing Bayesian inference...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012770293
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Does the Phillips Curve Help to Forecast Euro Area Inflation?
Banbura, Marta - 2020
breaks in the performance of most simple Phillips curves. Euro area inflation was particularly hard to forecast in the run … practitioners, we find that: (i) the key type of time variation to consider is an inflation trend; (ii) a simple filter-based output …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012822484
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Real Time Estimates of the Euro Area Output Gap : Reliability and Forecasting Performance
Marcellino, Massimiliano Giuseppe; Musso, Alberto - 2021
estimates for inflation forecasting both in the short term (one-quarter and one-year ahead) and the medium term (two-year and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013316260
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Diffusion Index-Based Inflation Forecasts for the Euro Area
Angelini, Elena; Henry, Jerome; Mestre, Ricardo - 2021
-country data set and a broad array of variables, in order to test the inflation forecasting performance of extracted factors at the … indicators of inflation, but the comparative advantage of the factors is less clear. Nevertheless, alternative indicators such as …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013320285
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Forecast Combination for Euro Area Inflation : A Cure in Times of Crisis?
Hubrich, Kirstin - 2017
The period of extraordinary volatility in euro area headline inflation starting in 2007 raised the question whether … for HICP headline inflation and HICP excluding food and energy. We investigate how forecast accuracy of the combination … including the global financial crisis with its extraordinary volatility in inflation. Overall, we find that forecast combination …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012965542
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Trend-Cycle Decomposition of Output and Euro Area Inflation Forecasts : A Real-Time Approach Based on Model Combination
Guerin, Pierre - 2011
predictive power of the output gap for inflation in the euro area. We find evidence of changes in trend growth around the … estimates in real time. Our measures help forecasting inflation over most of our evaluation sample (2001-2010) but fail …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013120226
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The EAGLE : A Model for Policy Analysis of Macroeconomic Interdependence in the Euro Area
Gomes, Sandra - 2010
Building on the New Area Wide Model, we develop a 4-region macroeconomic model of the euro area and the world economy. The model (EAGLE, Euro Area and Global Economy model) is microfounded and designed for conducting quantitative policy analysis of macroeconomic interdependence across regions...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013143817
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Predicting Recessions and Recoveries in Real Time : The Euro Area-Wide Leading Indicator (ALI)
de Bondt, Gabe; Hahn, Elke - 2021
This study develops a new monthly euro Area‐wide Leading Indicator (ALI) for the euro area business cycle. It derives the composite ALI by applying a deviation cycle methodology with a one‐sided band pass filter and choosing nine leading series. Our main findings are that i) the applied...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013316165