We analyse the adjustment of retail and services prices in a period of low inflation, using a set of individual price …

We analyse the adjustment of retail and services prices in a period of low inflation, using a set of individual price …

The quantity theory of money predicts a positive relationship between monetary growth and inflation over long …-run horizons. However, in the short-run, transitory shocks to either money or inflation can obscure the inflationary signal …. A ‘money augmented’ Phillips curve that links inflation to money tightness and demand shocks of medium to long …

This paper presents experimental evidence from a monetary sticky price economy in which output and inflation depend on … expected future inflation. With rational inflation expectations, the economy does not generate persistent deviations of output … and inflation in response to a monetary shock. In the experimental sessions, however, output and inflation display …

estimates for inflation forecasting both in the short term (one-quarter and one-year ahead) and the medium term (two-year and …

predictive power of the output gap for inflation in the euro area. We find evidence of changes in trend growth around the … estimates in real time. Our measures help forecasting inflation over most of our evaluation sample (2001-2010) but fail …

, subsequently, we didn't see the inflation they predicted. We show that these puzzles disappear in a Vector Autoregressive model … much of the inflation dynamics in the 2012-2014 euro area missing inflation episode. Consequently, economists and models … that excessively focused on the global nature of inflation were liable to miss the contribution of deflationary domestic …

A crucial but often ignored element of inflation expectations is the amount of perceived inflation risk. This paper …) using a new methodology. The main conclusion from our analysis is that, when monitoring inflation expectations, limiting … attention to a point prediction is not sufficient. The analysis of inflation expectations should take into account inflation …

affected temporarily. Inflation forecasts made by Eurosystem/ECB staff perform similarly or slightly better than those from our …