Showing 1 - 10 of 1,014
We use a joint model of macroeconomic and term structure dynamics to estimate inflation risk premia in the United States and the euro area. To sharpen our estimation, we include in the information set macro data and survey data on inflation and interest rate expectations at various future...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013135685
We propose a new method for medium-term forecasting using exogenous information. We first show how a shifting-mean autoregressive model can be used to describe characteristic features in inflation series. This implies that we decompose the inflation process into a slowly moving nonstationary...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013122536
In comparison with the large literature on house prices, housing investments have been studied far less. This paper investigates the behavior of private residential investments for the six largest European economies, namely: Germany, France, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013102106
This paper attempts to model the nominal and real exchange rate for Ireland, relative to Germany and the UK from 1975 to 2003. It offers an overview of the theory of purchasing power parity (Ppp), focusing particularly on likely sources of nonlinearity. Potential difficulties in placing the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012775859
This paper explores the role that inflation forecasts play in the uncertainty surrounding the estimated effects of alternative monetary rules on unemployment dynamics in the euro area and the US. We use the inflation forecasts of 8 competing models in a standard Bayesian VAR to analyse the size...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012777870
This paper studies factors behind inflation dynamics in the euro area, the UK and the US. It introduces a factor-augmented vector autoregression (FAVAR) framework with sign restrictions to study the effects of fundamental macroeconomic shocks on inflation in the three economies. The FAVAR model...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013020653
This paper examines the usefulness of the Okun relationship as a “rule of thumb” for predicting changes in unemployment, as a result of changes in output. It argues that a disaggregated version of the Okun relationship - making use of the differential reaction of unemployment to changes in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013043078
The goal of this paper is to analyze predictability of future asset returns in the context of model uncertainty. Using data for the euro area, the US and the UK, we show that one can improve the forecasts of stock returns using a model averaging approach, and there is a large amount of model...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013078196
As the role of central banks expanded, demand for public scrutiny of their actions increased. This paper investigates whether parliamentary hearings, the main tool to hold central banks accountable, are fit for this purpose. Using text analysis, it detects the topics and sentiments in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012828885
This paper develops a two-country model with asset market segmentation to investigate the effects of quantitative easing implemented by the major central banks on a typical small open economy that follows independent monetary policy. The model is able to replicate the key empirical facts on...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013315413