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of the monetary union, have on the rest of the world. Disentangling euro area stress shocks and global risk aversion … area but also for the rest of the world. Notably, an increase in euro area stress entails a slowdown of economic activity … in the rest of the world, as well as a fall in imports/exports of both the euro area and the rest of the world. A …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012824791
Since the introduction of the euro in January 1999, exchange rate stability at the periphery of the euro area is growing. The paper investigates the impact of exchange rate stability on growth for a sample of 41 mostly small open economies at the EMU periphery. It identifies international trade,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012773503
This paper reviews reassesses the methodology and principal findings of the “Rose effect”, i.e. the trade effects of currency union, looking at both EMU and non-EMU currency unions. The consensus estimate suggests that the euro has already boosted intra-euro area trade by five to ten...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604640
Using extreme value theory tools, we demonstrate that the distributions of the exchange market pressure (EMP) series for most of twelve emerging Europe countries have heavy tails, and disregarding their tail properties may lead to substantial underestimation of the probability of tail events....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013019633
This paper analyses the impact of the shift away from a US dollar focus of systemically important emerging market economies (EMEs) on configurations between the US dollar, the euro and the yen. Given the difficulty that fixed or managed US dollar exchange rate regimes remain pervasive and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012749953
Through the euro area crisis, financial fragmentation across jurisdictions became a prime concern for the single monetary policy. The ECB broadened the scope of its instruments and enacted a series of non-standard measures to engineer an appropriate degree of policy accommodation. The...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012889467
We examine the implications of monetary union for macroeconomic stabilisation in catching up participating countries. We allow member states' supply conditions to differ inside the union, especially with regard to sectoral characteristics. Sectoral productivity shocks on balance hamper the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013317597
There is already a substantial literature documenting the fact that low yield currencies typically appreciate during times of global financial stress and behave as safe havens. The main objective of this paper is to find out what the fundamentals of safe haven currencies are. We analyse a large...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013131638
global turnover of London, the world's largest trading venue, by as much as one-third …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012993792
Traditional carry trade strategies are based on differences in short-term interest rates, neglecting any other information embedded in yield curves. We derive return distributions of carry trade portfolios among G10 currencies, where the signals to buy and sell currencies are based on summary...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012920109