monetary and credit aggregates are very often selected among the top predictors of inflation, with their predictive power … and credit variables in forecasting inflation, even if their information content is diluted in a much broader pool of …

We develop a time-varying transition probabilities Markov Switching model in which inflation is characterised by two … regimes (high and low inflation). Using Bayesian techniques, we apply the model to the euro area, Germany, the US, the UK and … switches between inflation regimes. Thus money growth provides an important early warning indicator for risks to price …

equilibrium values having explanatory power for subsequent consumer price inflation …

Over the last two centuries, the coherence between either narrow or broad money growth and inflation at zero has … that the fraction of inflation's long-run variation explained by long-run money growth has been very high and relatively … outbursts associated with World War I and the Great Inflation - but not World War II - whereas following the disinflation of the …

indicators in predicting euro area HICP inflation out-of-sample over the period first quarter 1999 till third quarter 2006 …

The paper analyses the short-run impact of periods of strong monetary growth on inflation dynamics for 15 …

indicators in predicting euro area HICP inflation out-of-sample over the period first quarter 1999 till third quarter 2006 …

for future inflation for the cross section of New EU Member States. This paper provides stylized facts on monetary versus … non-monetary (economic and fiscal) determinants of inflation in these countries as well as formal econometric evidence on … predicting inflation at longer (3-year) horizons. …

We develop a time-varying transition probabilities Markov Switching model in which inflation is characterised by two … regimes (high and low inflation). Using Bayesian techniques, we apply the model to the euro area, Germany, the US, the UK and … switches between inflation regimes. Thus money growth provides an important early warning indicator for risks to price …

Density forecasts of euro area inflation are a fundamental input for a medium-term oriented central bank, such as the … euro area (headline and core) inflation and a large set of determinants, is competitive with state-of-the-art linear … ECB point inflation forecasts, displaying similar deviations from “linearity”. Given that the ECB modelling toolbox is …