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Investigating Inflation Persistence Across Monetary Regimes
Benati, Luca - 2021
Under inflation targeting inflation exhibits negative serial correlation in the United Kingdom, and little or no persistence in Canada, Sweden and New Zealand, and estimates of the indexation parameter in hybrid New Keynesian Phillips curves are either equal to zero, or very low, in all...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013316644
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Involuntary Unemployment and the Business Cycle
Christiano, Lawrence J. - 2010
We propose a monetary model in which the unemployed satisfy the official US definition of unemployment: they are people ….e., unemployment is ‘involuntary'). We integrate our model of involuntary unemployment into the simple New Keynesian framework with no … capital and use the resulting model to discuss the concept of the ‘non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment'. We then …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013143337
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The Phillips curve and long-term unemployment
Llaudes, Ricardo - 2005
This paper studies the role of long-term unemployment in the determination of prices and wages. Labor market theories … propose a new specification of the Phillips Curve that contains different unemployment lengths in a time-varying NAIRU setting …. This is done by constructing an index of unemployment that assigns different weights to the unemployed based on the length …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604487
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The conquest of U.S. inflation: learning and robustness to model uncertainty
Cogley, Timothy; Sargent, Thomas J. - 2005
Previous studies have interpreted the rise and fall of U.S. inflation after World War II in terms of the Fed's changing views about the natural rate hypothesis but have left an important question unanswered. Why was the Fed so slow to implement the low-inflation policy recommended by a natural...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604524
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Sticky information Phillips curves: European evidence
Döpke, Jörg; Dovern, Jonas; Fritsche, Ulrich; … - 2008
We estimate the sticky information Phillips curve model of Mankiw and Reis (2002) using survey expectations of professional forecasters from four major European economies. Our estimates imply that inflation expectations in France, Germany and the United Kingdom are updated about once a year, in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604976
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Nonparametric Hybrid Phillips Curves Based on Subjective Expectations: Estimates for the Euro Area
Buchmann, Marco - 2009
This paper addresses the estimation of Phillips curve equations for the euro area while employing less stringent assumptions on the functional correspondence between price inflation, inflation expectations and marginal costs. Expectations are not assumed to be an unbiased predictor of actual...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605165
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Inflation Persistence in the European Union, the Euro Area, and the United States
Gadzinski, Gregory - 2011
In this paper we report results on inflation persistence using 79 inflation series covering the EU countries, the euro area and the US for five different inflation variables. The picture that emerges is one of moderate inflation persistence across the board. In particular we find euro area...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013120765
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Forecasting Inflation with Gradual Regime Shifts and Exogenous Information
Hubrich, Kirstin - 2011
We propose a new method for medium-term forecasting using exogenous information. We first show how a shifting-mean autoregressive model can be used to describe characteristic features in inflation series. This implies that we decompose the inflation process into a slowly moving nonstationary...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013122536
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Mind the Output Gap : The Disconnect of Growth and Inflation During Recessions and Convex Phillips Curves in the Euro Area
Gross, Marco - 2017
We develop a theoretical model that features a business cycle-dependent relation between output, price inflation and inflation expectations, augmenting the model by Svensson (1997) with a nonlinear Phillips curve that reflects the rationale underlying the capacity constraint theory (Macklem...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012963916
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Will US Inflation Awake from the Dead? The Role of Slack and Non-Linearities in the Phillips Curve
Albuquerque, Bruno - 2017
. At the same time, it has been argued that the short-term unemployment gap has a more prominent role in determining …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012963919