improves the out-of-sample forecast accuracy of the model. Furthermore, we evaluate the case for introducing a discount factor …

potential vast multitude of alternative mis-specified MSVs. Using a new Multi-country Euro area Model with Boundedly Estimated …

We propose a shadow-rate term structure model for the euro area yield curve from 1999 to mid-2015, when bond yields had …

This paper addresses the estimation of Phillips curve equations for the euro area while employing less stringent …

perceptions and expectations is driven by the flow of information related to current and future price developments in the euro … area. We conduct the analysis both on an aggregate level for the euro area as well as for a set of countries using panel …

The paper focuses on the estimation of the euro area output gap. We construct model-averaged measures of the output gap … models of GDP. We first estimate nine models of trend-cycle decomposition of euro area GDP, both univariate and multivariate … predictive power of the output gap for inflation in the euro area. We find evidence of changes in trend growth around the …

much of the inflation dynamics in the 2012-2014 euro area missing inflation episode. Consequently, economists and models …

We compare direct forecasts of HICP and HICP excluding energy and food in the euro area and five member countries to … models for the euro area …