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Do Professional Forecasters Behave as If They Believed in the New Keynesian Phillips Curve for the Euro Area?
López-Pérez, Víctor - 2015
forecasts that are consistent with a (mostly forward-looking) New Keynesian Phillips Curve for the euro area. The estimation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013026617
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Does the Euro Make a Difference? Spatio-Temporal Transmission of Global Shocks to Real Effective Exchange Rates in an Infinite VAR
Bussière, Matthieu - 2011
This paper provides evidence on whether the creation of the euro has changed the way global turbulences affect euro area and other economies. Specifically, it considers the impact of global shocks on the competitiveness of individual euro area countries and assesses whether their responses to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013130602
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Long-Run Money Demand in the New EU Member States with Exchange Rate Effects
Dreger, Christian; Reimers, Hans-Eggert; Roffia, Barbara - 2021
analysis in the new Member States of the European Union (EU) is conducted using panel cointegration methods. A well …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013317611
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Reverse Causality in Global Current Accounts
Schnabl, Gunther - 2010
The paper discusses global imbalances under the aspect of an asymmetric world monetary system. It identifies the US and Germany as center countries with rising/high current account deficits (US) and surpluses (Germany). These are matched by current account surpluses of countries stabilizing...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013142986
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A Stable Model for Euro Area Money Demand : Revisiting the Role of Wealth
Beyer, Andreas - 2009
In this paper we present an empirically stable money demand model for Euro area M3. We show that housing wealth is an important explanatory variable of long-run money demand that captures the trending behaviour of M3 velocity, in particular its shift in the first half of this decade. We show...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013155103
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Does it Matter How Aggregates are Measured? The Case of Monetary Transmission Mechanisms in the Euro Area
Beyer, Andreas - 2010
impact on the cointegration properties in empirical modelling, the monetary model in Coenen &Vega (2001) based on fixed …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013149066
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Budgetary and External Imbalances Relationship : A Panel Data Diagnostic
Afonso, António; Rault, Christophe - 2021
We assess the cointegration relationship between current account and budget balances, and effective real exchange rates …, using recent bootstrap panel cointegration techniques and SUR methods. We investigate the magnitude of the relationship … panel cointegration tests used allow for within and between correlation, while the SUR results show both positive and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013316457
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Bayesian Inference in Cointegrated VAR Models : With Applications to the Demand for Euro Area M3
Warne, Anders - 2021
The paper considers a Bayesian approach to the cointegrated VAR model with a uniform prior on the cointegration space …. Building on earlier work by Villani (2005b), where the posterior probability of the cointegration rank can be calculated … the marginal likelihood identity is used for calculating these probabilities, a point estimator of the cointegration space …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013317369
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Non-Linear Dynamics in the Euro Area Demand for M1
Calza, Alessandro; Zaghini, Andrea - 2021
This paper investigates possible non-linearities in the dynamics of the euro area demand for the narrow aggregate M1. A long-run money demand relationship is firstly estimated over a sample period covering the last three decades. While the parameters of the relationship are jointly stable, there...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013317661
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Exchange Rate Prediction Redux : New Models, New Data, New Currencies
Cheung, Yin-Wong - 2017
Previous assessments of nominal exchange rate determination, following Meese and Rogoff (1983) have focused upon a narrow set of models. Cheung et al. (2005) augmented the usual suspects with productivity based models, and “behavioral equilibrium exchange rate” models, and assessed...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012963129