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through error spillover effects. Bootstrapped error bands are also provided for the cross country responses of a shock to the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013316169
responses to both permanent and transitory shocks in Hungary and compared my results to similar studies on Italian and … response differs depending on the nature of the shock. Broadly speaking, the wage response to permanent shocks is twice as high …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013316455
model of the economy, the minimal state variable solution (MSV), but they do not know the parameters. However, with medium … the rest of the economy, nor do they know the stochastic processes generating shocks hitting the economy. In addition … path to the shocks to the economy when agent form expectations using our learning approach compared to expectations formed …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013128293
The model presented here is a New estimated medium-scale Multi-Country Model (NMCM) which covers the five largest euro area countries and is used for forecasting and scenarios analysis at the European Central Bank. The model has a tight theoretical structure which allows for non-unitary...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013128296
We propose a model for analyzing euro area trade based on the interaction between macroeconomic and trade variables. First, we show that macroeconomic variables are necessary to generate accurate short-term trade forecasts; this result can be explained by the high correlation between trade and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012963898
In a highly interlinked global economy a key question for policy makers is how foreign shocks and policies transmit to … the domestic economy. We develop a semi-structural multi-country model with rich real and financial channels of … international shock propagation for the euro area, the US, Japan, the UK, China, oil-exporting economies and the rest of the world …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012958272
degree of wage rigidity makes monetary policy more effective, i.e. a monetary policy shock transmits faster onto inflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012764518
This paper aims at assessing the role of the United States in the global economy and its evolution over time. The … emergence of large economic players, like China, is likely to have weakened the role of the U.S. economy as a driver of global …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012764530
In this paper, we outline a version of the New Area-Wide Model (NAWM) of the euro area designed for use in the (Broad) Macroeconomic Projection Exercises regularly undertaken by ECB/Eurosystem staff. We present estimation results for the NAWM that are obtained by employing Bayesian inference...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012770293
Macroeconomic imbalances increase the vulnerability of an economy to adverse shocks, which in turn can lead to crises … multivariate discrete choice framework. The approach allows us to quantify an economy's macroeconomic vulnerabilities at any point …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012864788