, Hungary, Poland, Russia and Turkey from May 1998 to December 2007. To account for the importance of market expectations we use …

predictive power of the output gap for inflation in the euro area. We find evidence of changes in trend growth around the … estimates in real time. Our measures help forecasting inflation over most of our evaluation sample (2001-2010) but fail …

on output and, in particular, also on inflation in the euro area under alternative settings for monetary policy. We … that this over-proportionality is stronger for the fiscal multiplier on inflation than on output. We relate this finding to …

We develop a theoretical model that features a business cycle-dependent relation between output, price inflation and … inflation expectations, augmenting the model by Svensson (1997) with a nonlinear Phillips curve that reflects the rationale … pronounced convex relationship between inflation and the output gap, meaning that the co-efficient in the Phillips curve on the …

This paper tests whether the proposition that globalisation has led to greater sensitivity of domestic inflation to the … power for domestic consumer price inflation in the euro area. Based on these findings, the prescription that central banks …

estimates for inflation forecasting both in the short term (one-quarter and one-year ahead) and the medium term (two-year and …

. Our analysis improves upon existing work by endogenising the volatility of both output and inflation. Improved …

This paper formalizes the process of updating the nowcast and forecast on out-put and inflation as new releases of data … Philadelphia surveys have a large marginal impact on the nowcast of both inflation variables and real variables and this effect is … sizeable. Prices and quantities affect the precision of the estimates of inflation while GDP is only affected by real variables …