alternative monetary rules on unemployment dynamics in the euro area and the US. We use the inflation forecasts of 8 competing …This paper explores the role that inflation forecasts play in the uncertainty surrounding the estimated effects of … relative to the different inflation models under two rules. The results suggest that model uncertainty can be a serious issue …

employment and hours affecting inflation dynamics via marginal costs. We find that the response of unemployment and inflation to … persistent movements of aggregate inflation. Moreover, the impact of a monetary policy shock on unemployment and inflation …

This paper relates the size of the cyclical inflation differentials, currently observed for euro area countries, to the … cyclical inflation differentials. The proposed mechanism is a supply side one in which differences in labor market institutions …

macroeconomic forecasts. We produce real time out-of-sample forecasts for inflation, the unemployment rate and the interest rate … predictions for the three variables. In particular for inflation the TV-VAR outperforms, in terms of mean square forecast error … also shown to hold over the most recent period in which it has been hard to forecast inflation. …

results suggest that euro-area inflation forecasts have reacted less to unemployment forecasts after the start of the … better anchoring of inflation expectations and increases in structural unemployment do not seem to find support in the survey … financial crisis but another cost measure (energy inflation) remains significant. This finding is consistent with a flatter …

All else equal, higher wages translate into higher inflation. More rigid wages imply a weaker response of inflation to … paper, we present a model with equilibrium unemployment which has three distinctive properties. First, using a search and …, which allows the model to reproduce the fluctuations of unemployment over the business cycle. And third, the model implies a …