find a higher average forecast accuracy of models that incorporate information on inflation expectations from the ECB’s SPF … inflation expectations are typically not large but significant in some periods. Both short- and long-term expectations provide … (not always for the countries). The analysis is undertaken for headline inflation and inflation excluding energy and food …

A crucial but often ignored element of inflation expectations is the amount of perceived inflation risk. This paper …) using a new methodology. The main conclusion from our analysis is that, when monitoring inflation expectations, limiting … attention to a point prediction is not sufficient. The analysis of inflation expectations should take into account inflation …

This paper first shows that the forecast error incurred when assuming that future inflation will be equal to the … inflation target announced by the central bank is typically at least as small and often smaller than forecast errors of model …-based and published inflation forecasts. It then shows that there are substantial benefits in having rule-of-thumb agents who …

This paper develops a Bayesian quantile regression model with time-varying parameters (TVPs) for forecasting inflation … inflation with the ability of quantile regression to model flexibly the whole distribution of inflation. In order to make our …-based indicators for the prediction of the conditional distribution of inflation in the euro area, both in the short and longer run …

Trend inflation estimates for 12 of the largest Asian economies over 1995-2018 offer important insights on inflation … dynamics and inflation expectations. The disinflationary shocks that hit the region since 2014 were partly transitory, but … their effects have been different depending on the behaviour of trend inflation in each country. Countries with relatively …

This paper explores the role that inflation forecasts play in the uncertainty surrounding the estimated effects of … alternative monetary rules on unemployment dynamics in the euro area and the US. We use the inflation forecasts of 8 competing … relative to the different inflation models under two rules. The results suggest that model uncertainty can be a serious issue …

central banks should be viewed as following Calvo-type inflation-forecast-based (IFB) interest rate rules which depend on a … discounted sum of current and future rates of inflation. Such rules might be regarded as both within the legal frameworks, and …

imperfect credibility and weak anchoring of long-term expectations. Within a medium-scale DSGE model, we introduce through a … determination of the central bank to leave unchanged its long-term inflation objective in the face of inflationary shocks. The … magnitude of private sector learning has been calibrated to match the volatility of US inflation expectations at long horizons …

's ability to form realistic inflation expectations. …

. One major aim of this outreach is to guide inflation expectations; another is to ensure accountability and create trust … on the extent to which this new outreach does in fact affect inflation expectations and trust. On balance, we see some …