Showing 1 - 10 of 274
The Eurosystem staff forecasts are conditional on the financial markets, the global economy and fiscal policy outlook, and include expert judgement. We develop a multi-country BVAR for the four largest countries of the euro area and we show that it provides accurate conditional forecasts of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012893903
Against the background of the rapid integration of emerging Asia into the global economy, this paper investigates the … role of domestic and external factors in driving individual emerging economies in Asia. We estimate VAR models for ten …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012778007
dependence of emerging Asia on external demand. This paper analyses, using an update of the Asian International Input-Output (AIO … linkages. According to the results, we do not find evidence of the decoupling of emerging Asia from the rest of the world. On … indicates that emerging Asia's dependence on exports is only about one-third of its GDP, i.e. well below the 50% exposure …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012765710
We analytically derive optimal central bank portfolios in a minimum variance framework with two assets and quot … sudden stops in Asia and Latin America, while the euro is a better hedge for sudden stops in Emerging Europe. We reproduce …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012771394
regions with widening imbalances, the United States and emerging Asia, using sign restrictions that are compatible with … imbalances in the US and emerging Asia than a quot;savings glutquot …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012771616
Trend inflation estimates for 12 of the largest Asian economies over 1995-2018 offer important insights on inflation dynamics and inflation expectations. The disinflationary shocks that hit the region since 2014 were partly transitory, but their effects have been different depending on the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012858259
is rather diverse especially as compared to the group of top performing emerging markets in Asia. Econometric analysis …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013318047
This paper develops a DSGE model where banks use short-term deposits to provide firms with long-term credit. The demand for long-term credit arises because firms borrow in order to finance their capital stock which they only adjust at infrequent intervals. Within an RBC framework, we show that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013099027
This paper studies the impact of cyclical systemic risk on future bank profitability for a large representative panel … risk predict large drops in the average bank-level return on assets (ROA) with a lead time of 3-5 years. Based on quantile … local projections we further show that the negative impact of cyclical systemic risk on the left tail of the future bank …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012834322
This paper studies the relationship between the business cycle and financial intermediation in the euro area. We establish stylized facts and study their stability during the global financial crisis and the European sovereign debt crisis. Long-term interest rates have been exceptionally high and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012893985