This paper asks whether a textbook Phillips curve can explain the behavior of core inflation in the euro area. A … critical feature of the analysis is that we measure core inflation with the weighted median of industry inflation rates, which … is less volatile than the common measure of inflation excluding food and energy prices. We find that fluctuations in core …

This paper formalizes the process of updating the nowcast and forecast on out-put and inflation as new releases of data … Philadelphia surveys have a large marginal impact on the nowcast of both inflation variables and real variables and this effect is … sizeable. Prices and quantities affect the precision of the estimates of inflation while GDP is only affected by real variables …

This paper estimates a time-varying AR-GARCH model of inflation producing measures of inflation uncertainty for the … change associated with the start of EMU in 1999. The main findings are as follows. Steadystate inflation and inflation … can achieve lower inflation uncertainty by lowering the inflation rate …

professional forecasters from four major European economies. Our estimates imply that inflation expectations in France, Germany and …

professional forecasters from four major European economies. Our estimates imply that inflation expectations in France, Germany and …

assumptions on the functional correspondence between price inflation, inflation expectations and marginal costs. Expectations are … not assumed to be an unbiased predictor of actual inflation and instead derived from the European Commission’s Consumer … Survey data. The results suggest that expectations drive inflation with a lag of about 6 months, which casts further doubt on …

We characterise the evolution of the U.S. unemployment-inflation trade-off since the late XIX century era via a … Bayesian time-varying parameters structural VAR. The Great Inflation episode appears as historically unique along several … inflation and unemployment's deviations from equilibrium - was, during those years, clearly out of line with respect to the rest …

assumptions on the functional correspondence between price inflation, inflation expectations and marginal costs. Expectations are … not assumed to be an unbiased predictor of actual inflation and instead derived from the European Commission’s Consumer … Survey data. The results suggest that expectations drive inflation with a lag of about 6 months, which casts further doubt on …

This paper studies euro changeover-related inflation using disaggregated price level data. The difference …-in-differences approach is used and the control group for the treatment country, Estonia, is built from 12 euro area countries. The Nielsen … segments. Changeover-related inflation was higher for products that were relatively cheaper than the euro area average …