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This paper contributes to the old theme of testing for rationality of inflation expectations in surveys, using two very different surveys in parallel. Focusing on the euro area and using two well-known surveys that include questions on inflation expectations, the Consensus Forecast survey and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604767
We develop a technique for analyzing the response dynamics of economic variables to structural shocks in linear rational expectations models. Our work differs from standard SVARs since we allow expectations of future variables to enter structural equations. We show how to estimate the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013318029
, learning from the experience of the 1970s, eschewed activist policies in favor of policies that concentrated on the achievement …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604383
: rational expectations and learning. We show that in this environment the ability to stabilize the real side of the economy is … private learning and misperceptions of natural rates call for greater policy inertia, a more aggressive response to inflation … economy. We show that such policies are quite robust to potential misspecification of private sector learning and the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604810
optimise under limited-information model-consistent learning, where each agent knows the parameters related to his …/her optimization problem. Under this learning approach the effect of a monetary policy shock on output and inflation is more muted but … learning version, we .find stronger expansionary effects of an increase in government expenditure during periods of downturns …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605790
We develop a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with rational inattention by households and firms. Consumption responds slowly to interest rate changes because households decide to pay little attention to the real interest rate. Prices respond quickly to some shocks and slowly to other...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013127486
determination of aggregate variables. We study how different forms of heterogeneity in structure, forecasts and adaptive learning … rules affect the conditions for convergence of adaptive learning towards rational expectations equilibrium. Results are …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604166
realistic assumption of boundedly rational learning where agents are assumed to use only a limited set of information to form … differences in the adjustment path to the shocks to the economy when agent form expectations using our learning approach compared …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605362
This paper studies to what extent the experiences of households shape their willingness to take financial risks. It follows the methodology of Malmendier and Nagel (2011) and applies it to a novel data set on household finances covering euro area households. We show that experienced stock market...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605697
learning, choosing among a set of alternative forecasting models. The analysis is accompanied by empirical evidence on the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011606039