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Short-term forecasts of euro area real GDP growth: an assessment of real-time performance based on vintage data

Diron, Marie - 2006

Economic policy makers, international organisations and private-sector forecasters commonly use short-term forecasts of real GDP growth based on monthly indicators, such as industrial production, retail sales and confidence surveys. An assessment of the reliability of such tools and of the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604668

Short-Term Forecasts of Euro Area Real GDP Growth : An Assessment of Real-Time Performance Based on Vintage Data

Diron, Marie - 2021

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013317625

How repayments manipulate our perceptions about loan dynamics after a boom

Adalid, Ramón; Falagiarda, Matteo - 2018

We propose a method to decompose net lending flows into loan origination and repayments. We show that a boom in loan origination is transmitted to repayments with a very long lag, depressing the growth rate of the stock for many periods. In the euro area, repayments of the mortgage loans granted...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012142055

How Repayments Manipulate Our Perceptions about Loan Dynamics after a Boom

Adalid, Ramón; Falagiarda, Matteo - 2021

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013315372

Understanding and forecasting aggregate and disaggregate price dynamics

Bermingham, Colin; D’Agostino, Antonello - 2011

The issue of forecast aggregation is to determine whether it is better to forecast a series directly or instead construct forecasts of its components and then sum these component forecasts. Notwithstanding some underlying theoretical results, it is generally accepted that forecast aggregation is...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605411

Putting the New Keynesian DSGE model to the real-time forecasting test

Kolasa, Marcin; Rubaszek, Michał; Skrzypczyński, Paweł - 2009

. Nevertheless, their forecasting properties are still barely explored. We fill this gap by comparing the quality of real … priors from a DSGE model. We show that the analyzed DSGE model is relatively successful in forecasting the US economy in the … accurate short-term forecasts for interest rates. Conditional on experts' now casts, however, the forecasting power of the DSGE …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605156

Euro area labour markets: different reaction to shocks?

Brůha, Jan; Pierluigi, Beatrice; Serafini, Roberta - 2011

A small labour market model for the six largest euro area countries (Germany, France, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands, Belgium) is estimated in a state -space framework. The model entails, in the long run, four driving forces: a trend labour force component, a trend labour productivity component,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605330

Tackling the volatility paradox: spillover persistence and systemic risk

Kubitza, Christian - 2024

Financial losses can have persistent effects on the financial sy stem. This paper proposes an empirical measure for the duration of these effects, S pillover P ersistence. I d ocument that Spillover Persistence is strongly correlated with financial c onditions; d uring b anking crises, Spillover...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015199543

A wake-up call theory of contagion

Ahnert, Toni; Bertsch, Christoph - 2022

We offer a theory of financial c ontagion b ased o n t he i nformation c hoice o f i nvestors after observing a financial crisis e lsewhere. We study global coordination games of regime change in two regions linked by an initially unobserved macro shock. A crisis in region 1 is a wake-up call to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013367988

Latent fragility: Conditioning banks' joint probability of default on the financial cycle

Bochmann, Paul; Hiebert, Paul; Schüler, Yves; … - 2022

We propose the CoJPoD, a novel framework explicitly linking the cross-sectional and cyclical dimensions of systemic risk. In this framework, banking sector distress in the form of the joint probability of default of financial intermediaries (reflecting contagion from both direct and indirect...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014278517