This paper reviews the existing empirical evidence on the short-term impact on prices of fiscal variables and assesses … Commission and the OECD models. Overall, a broad consensus appears on the impact on prices of changes in individual government … limited impact on prices in the first year while, in contrast, changes in indirect taxes and employers' social security …

This paper investigates the persistence of aggregate wages and prices in Portugal assuming a model of a unionized … wages is attributable mainly to unemployment shocks (about 80 percent), whereas variation in the forecast errors of prices …). Productivity shocks explain somewhat less than 10 percent of the variation in forecast errors of wages and prices. …

Inflation volatility is clearly important for structural analysis, forecasting and policy purposes, yet it is often …

-month interest rates is explored in an exercise of out-of-sample forecasting. This yield spread appears to contain …

option prices. We find that the OTC implied volatilities explain a much larger share of the variation in realized volatility …

equilibrium models, estimated using Bayesian techniques, can become an additional useful tool in the forecasting kit of central … banks. First, we show that the forecasting performance of such models compares well with a-theoretical vector …

Standard measures of prices are often contaminated by transitory shocks. This has prompted economists to suggest the … use of measures of underlying in?ation to formulate monetary policy and assist in forecasting observed in?ation. Recent … disaggregated price indices for European countries. We then assess the forecasting ability of these factor estimates against other …

sizeable. Prices and quantities affect the precision of the estimates of inflation while GDP is only affected by real variables …