We assess monetary convergence preceding the implementation of the European Monetary Union (EMU) through Kalman filtering estimates of the risk premium of eleven forward exchange rates of European and non-European currencies. Since all participating currencies are in effect identical from...

This paper addresses the question of whether sterilized central bank intervention systematically affects exchange rates. Furthermore, the paper analyzes whether a central bank can conduct its intervention operations in a specific manner, in order to increase the likelihood of achieving its...

Focusing on emerging market currency arrangements, we build a model of an exchange rate peg with escape clauses and output persistence. We first show how output persistence works as an additional 'fundamental' so that an exogenous increase in persistence can make the currency peg more vulnerable...

Learning rules are increasingly being used in macroeconomic models. However one criticism that has been levelled at this assumption is that the choice of variables for inclusion in the learning rule, and the actual specification of the learning rule itself, is arbitrary. In this paper we test...

This paper surveys the optimum currency area (OCA) literature. It is organised into four phases: the 'pioneering phase' which put forward the OCA theory and its properties, the 'reconciliation phase' when its diverse facets were combined, the 'reassessment phase' that led to the 'new OCA theory'...

So far, the 'new open economy macroeconomics' literature has primarly focused on monetary policy and monetary policy rules, rather than paying attention also to fiscal policy. This is an omission because, especially with the advent of EMU, the burden on fiscal policy as an instrument for...

This paper tests for the hypothesis that institutional integration interacts with economic integration at the regional level. In particular, we ask what lessons can be drawn from the European experience with regional integration for Latin America. Several indicators of institutional and economic...

Following Shimko (1993), a large amount of research has evolved around the problem of extracting risk neutral densities from options prices by interpolating the Balck-Scholes implied volatility smile. Some of the methods recently proposed use variants of the cubic spline. Thesee methods have the...

The enlargement of the European monetary union to include the accession countries (ACs) will not lead to higher average inflation in the enlarged euro area, but only to inflation redistribution across countries if continuity of the monetary policy framework is preserved. In the short term,...

A central puzzle in international finance is that real exchange rates are volatile and, in stark contradiction to effcient risk-sharing, negatively correlated with cross-country consumption ratios. This paper shows that incomplete asset markets and a low price elasticity of tradables can account...